Canadians are still buying the basics. They’re just pickier about price, brand, and how they pay. Rates eased a bit, yet budgets feel tight. People adjust. They try new labels. They tap to pay and move on.
1) Essentials lead, with a value twist
Through June, food and beverage stores pulled retail higher. July cooled, and core retail slipped. It’s a nudge to stock the core and price it well.
Sticker shock hasn’t fully left the aisle. Meat prices were up strongly in August, which pushes shoppers to cheaper cuts, bigger packs, and promos that feel fair.
Discount grocers kept winning share. Loblaw’s value banners and drug stores grew, and online orders climbed too. That says a lot about where the cart goes first.
2) The store brand moment
Private label is now a habit, not a fallback. In 2025, 42% of Canadians said they’re buying more private label than ever. Most say the quality is fine and the deal is better. Perhaps not for every item, but often enough.
3) “Buy local” meets real-world price checks
People love local food. Three in four say they’ll pay extra for it. Yet most will still pick the cheaper import if the gap is wide. Values matter. So does the bill. Honest, clear pricing wins that trade-off.
4) Second-hand goes mainstream
Preowned is no longer niche. A 2025 survey found 77% of adults bought at least one used item in the past year. Recommerce in Canada is set to grow in double digits this year. Apparel leads, but tech and home goods show up as well.
5) Online share grows, but the split depends on who measures it
StatCan’s retail lens shows e-commerce at about 6.1% of total retail in July. Industry forecasters, with a broader scope, peg 2025 near 13%. Definitions differ. Your mix might sit between those poles. Track your own share, not just the headline.
6) Tap to pay changes the checkout and what sells near it
Contactless made up 58% of all payment volume in 2024, and it’s still rising. Quick, low-friction taps feed small, frequent baskets. Place grab-and-go items close to the reader. Interac also reported a notable lift in debit transactions at small businesses this spring and summer, hinting at a shift to local spend.
The Bank of Canada’s latest methods-of-payment work shows contactless is now a normal part of in-person spend. That trend won’t reverse soon.
7) Travel and big treats pause, local treats hold
Prices for travel services fell year over year in August. That lines up with softer spend signals. People still want a treat, but many keep it closer to home a beauty pick, a small upgrade, a night out nearby. Not every cart says “cut.” Some just say “later.”
What this means for your plan
- Lead with value on staples. Make promos simple. Use pack sizes that feel fair when meat and dairy swing.
- Give private label pride of place. Treat it like a brand. Clear copy. Good photos. Easy swaps from national SKUs.
- Signal local, then show the math. If you sell local, state the reason and the price case. People like both stories.
- Add a pre-owned or trade-in lane where it fits. Fashion, baby, small appliances, even sport gear. Make the flow clean.
- Tighten checkout. Support tap, digital wallets, and Interac e-Transfer where it helps. Place impulse SKUs near the terminal.
- Watch your own online ratio. Compare StatCan’s narrow retail view with your platform metrics so targets are sane.
A last note. The data sends a mixed message. People say they want local. They buy value. They plan a trip, then choose a long weekend at home. That’s fine. Meet them where they land this week, not where a neat model says they should be.
